Forecasting and contingency planning arrangements for international protection applicants (2014)
The Irish Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner (ORAC) is reviewing the procedures in place for
- Forecasting possible future trends in asylum and subsidiary protection applications over the next twelve months.
- Contingency planning for possible increase in the number of protection applications received in terms of resource allocation to enable applications to be processed.
- Contingency planning for possible increase in reception and accommodation capacity which might be required due to an increase in the number of protection applicants.
The questions asked on forecasting concerned whether the Member State (MS) has a system in place for forecasting the number of applications for international protection (naip), and if so the sources for information used, the authorities involved, whether there is a special statistical forecasting unit responsible and whether the forecasting is linked to a system for contingency planning in the event of a significant and rapid change in the naip. The information to some extent updates the information presented in the February 2011 compilation of responses to a 2010 NO EMN NCP ad hoc query on forecasting the number of asylum seekers.
The questions asked on contingency planning concerned whether the MS has a system for this, how it operates and whether it has a legal basis, the possibilities for mobilizing extra financial and staff resources and whether there is a crisis management capacity that can be mobilized, the authorities involved and whether the possibility of calling on the assistance of e.g. the European Commission, EASO, other relevant EU agencies and/or other MS is included in the planning.
Questions were also asked about the experience of dealing with backlogs caused by an unanticipated rapid increase in naip, and whether there is a system in place for dealing with rapid increase in the naip, including whether certain types of applications are given priority.