Integrated Modeling of European Migration
James Raymer, University of Southampton
Nico Keilman, University of Oslo
Solveig Christiansen, University of Oslo
In order to fully understand the causes and consequences of international movements in Europe, researchers and policy makers need to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. The proposed research seeks to apply Bayesian methods to harmonise and correct for inadequacies in the available data and to estimate missing flows.
The project has two main objectives. First, we will develop a Bayesian statistical model for migration count data that allows for flows to be measured to different accuracies and that is able to incorporate auxiliary information on the associations between origins and destinations of migration (e.g., language, borders and distance) to estimate missing patterns. Second, the model will accommodate the various complexities in the reported international migration data in the modeling framework.
The project is led by experienced researchers who have a good track record in handling and collecting migration data, quantifying demographic uncertainty, estimating migration patterns and statistical modeling, including methods to deal with inadequate or missing data.
Estimates of migration flows are needed by governments to improve their planning policies. Migration is currently (and increasingly) the major factor contributing to population change. Countries will soon be required to provide harmonised migration flow statistics to Eurostat. Our proposed framework helps countries achieve this aim and provides measures of accuracy required for understanding the estimated parameters and flows.